Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

476
FXUS64 KEPZ 211122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
422 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 333 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

 - Dry and mild weather through the weekend, temperatures expected
   to warm to well above normal by this weekend.

- Light winds expected through Saturday, then low end breezy
  conditions expected in the lowlands and breezy conditions in
  mountain areas expected through at least next Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Benign weather will persist across the Borderland through the
period. An UL ridge over the northeast Pacific ocean will result
in warming temperatures and light winds through Saturday. By
Sunday, models show the quasi-stationary UL low off the NW
Pacific coast will begin to flatting the ridge resulting in zonal
flow over the Borderland. Typically, zonal flow over the area
leads to breezy conditions over the area, but only low end breezy
conditions is expected during the afternoon hours in the
lowlands, and breezy conditions in the mountain areas from Sunday
through at least next Friday. Models continue to show the main jet
will remain north of the area and high pressure over the Plains
will limit lee cyclogenesis. GFS/ECMWF both continue to show a
digging trough within the flow moving southeastward toward the
Borderland around the middle to latter part of next week, but
only the GFS shows the trough coming close enough to give the Gila
region a chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 333 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with dry weather
and light and variable winds AOB 08 kts or less with FEW-SCT250
after 17z at all TAF sites.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1242 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

No significant fire weather concerns are expected through the
period. At or near normal temperatures and dry weather with light
winds are expected today. Min RH values this afternoon will range
from the mid teens to lower 20s this afternoon. Light winds and
RH values in the mid teens to lower 20s are expected through
Friday with light winds and poor vent rates. Vent rates will range
from poor to good by Saturday. Winds will pick up on Sunday with
low end breezy conditions in the lowlands and breezy conditions in
the mountain areas expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  41  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66  39  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               65  35  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               65  34  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  32  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    63  35  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              66  39  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67  32  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                68  32  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  42  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                67  32  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             69  36  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               61  41  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   67  35  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             64  35  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           65  42  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65  30  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    67  30  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 64  35  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                62  35  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  67  35  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                62  34  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 60  32  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  63  30  65  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                66  35  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                64  30  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             69  35  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   66  33  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    74  23  76  23 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               69  34  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  36  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   69  31  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  67  30  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           67  34  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               67  39  71  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly