Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

419
FXUS64 KEPZ 041158
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
558 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

 - Light lowland rain and modest mountain snow chances (especially
   east slopes of the Sacs) today through Saturday night.

 - Chilly, blustery Saturday night followed by....

 - Strong warming Monday and beyond with near record high temps by
   Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

WV imagery showing original upper low over the central Rockies as
secondary low develops over western Arizona. Main deeper moisture
plume now east of the area. This had the area`s first shot of
rain last night. A second area of enhanced clouds associated with
jet streak is now over the central CWA. This is spreading some
light showers from about the RG Valley east, with light snow above
about 7000 ft in the Sacs. This should mostly end next 3-5 hours.
Otherwise, we wait for the upper low to continue tracking
southeastward, over northern Mexico by late tonight or Saturday
morning. Quasi dry-slot looks to remain over the central CWA as
better moisture remains east of the RG Valley, and increasing
instability out west with the upper low. Though POPs remain
everywhere, the best chance of precip will be east of El Paso and
west of Deming. Areas east of El Paso could also see a few
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening with modest instability
developing.

Precip chances look to become a bit more evenly distributed
tonight and Saturday as the upper low arcs back up northeast
toward the TX Panhandle by Saturday afternoon. At the surface a
sharp back door cold front will begin pushing into the area
Saturday morning, reaching the RG Valley no later than noon and
out to the Arizona border nearing sunset Saturday. Models do show
some decent upslope snow enhancement Saturday morning over the
east slopes of the Sacs. This area may need an advisory/warning,
but will let the dayshift take one last look at it. The fropa and
upper low passing east should taper off all precip Saturday night.
Other thing to watch are the gusty winds with the front and just
behind it. Increasing winds over most of the counties adjacent to
the Intl Border, with strongest gusts along west slopes of
mountains/terrain. Expect core of winds picking up over El
Paso/Hudspeth Counties Sat afternoon and evening and then
Luna/Hidalgo Counties Sat evening into the overnight hours of Sun
morning. Low level trajectories show possibility of dust transport
from White Sands NM southward over El Paso and Dona Ana
Counties-- all depending of course if the Sands receives any rain.
High temps most areas east of the Cont Divide likely to occur
early Saturday morning, with temps steady or falling after. Areas
to the west could still see typical diurnal temp pattern. It will
be a race, but if any precip can hang on into Saturday night, a
few flurries are not out of the question for the lowlands.

Sunday and beyond...sub-tropical upper high begins making strong
inroads to our area, with a rapid warmup. 500 mb heights rise
dramatically from around 5700m Sunday to 5820m Tuesday and maxing
out around 5880m Thursday/Friday. Thus, high temps back above
normal by Monday and well above normal (10+ deg) by Wed/Thu. In
fact NBM 75 percentile has Thu/Fri highs at record levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

El Paso east...SCT-BKN080 BKN200 with isolated BKN050 -SHRA. Above
7000 ft in the Sacs...isolated BKN-OVC030 3-5SM -SHSN. West of El
Paso...SCT-BKN100. Developing all areas after 20Z...SCT100
BKN200-250 with isolated BKN050 -SHRA. Additionally, mainly east
of El Paso...slight chance of BKN040CB -TSRA. Surface winds
variable AOB 7 knots becoming southwest 10-15 knots after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Fire conditions quite tame today and Saturday as combination of
scattered showers and rising humidity (both from moisture and
cooling temperatures) develop across the fire zones. Back door
cold front will give significant wind shift to east-northeast
Saturday. Drying out Sunday and beyond with rapidly warming
temperatures. High temps back above normal by Monday and to near-
record levels Thursday. Thus fire conditions will revert back to
elevated due to dryness. No significant winds are expected through
this dry period.

Min RH: Lowlands 15-30% today, 25-40% Saturday, then back to 7-12%
by Monday through Thursday. Mountains 25-35% today, 40% (Gila)-60%
(Sacs) Saturday, then down to 10-17% Monday through Thursday. Vent
rates very good-excellent today and Tuesday/Wednesday; good-very
good Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  43  54  33 /  20  20  60  10
Sierra Blanca            58  42  47  24 /  50  40  60  10
Las Cruces               63  38  55  27 /  10  20  50  10
Alamogordo               63  36  54  25 /  20  40  80  10
Cloudcroft               40  24  30  14 /  30  50  90  20
Truth or Consequences    62  34  53  30 /  20  30  60  10
Silver City              52  28  50  23 /  40  20  60  20
Deming                   64  32  59  27 /  10  10  50  20
Lordsburg                59  28  58  27 /  20  10  40  20
West El Paso Metro       63  44  55  34 /  20  20  50  10
Dell City                60  40  45  24 /  60  40  70  10
Fort Hancock             65  43  55  26 /  40  40  50  10
Loma Linda               57  40  46  26 /  40  30  60  10
Fabens                   65  44  55  29 /  30  30  50  10
Santa Teresa             63  39  55  29 /  10  20  50  10
White Sands HQ           64  44  55  33 /  10  20  60  10
Jornada Range            63  33  54  24 /  10  20  60  10
Hatch                    66  35  58  26 /  20  20  50  10
Columbus                 64  36  59  30 /  10  10  40  10
Orogrande                62  38  52  27 /  20  30  60  10
Mayhill                  51  28  37  17 /  40  60  90  20
Mescalero                51  28  39  16 /  30  60  90  20
Timberon                 48  26  36  14 /  40  50  80  20
Winston                  51  23  44  16 /  30  40  80  10
Hillsboro                59  30  52  25 /  20  20  60  10
Spaceport                62  30  54  23 /  20  30  50  10
Lake Roberts             52  25  50  23 /  50  20  70  20
Hurley                   54  25  54  21 /  30  20  60  20
Cliff                    61  27  58  25 /  40  10  60  20
Mule Creek               55  23  54  23 /  30  10  50  20
Faywood                  56  30  51  25 /  20  20  60  20
Animas                   60  29  59  28 /  10  10  30  20
Hachita                  61  28  57  25 /  10  10  40  20
Antelope Wells           60  29  59  27 /  20  20  40  20
Cloverdale               53  30  54  29 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner