Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS64 KEPZ 250547
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1147 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Quiet weather Friday, with sunny skies, warm temperatures and
   relatively light winds.

 - Southwest winds will begin to increase again on Saturday, with
   strong winds and blowing dust expected on Sunday.

 - The wind and a continuation of very dry conditions will bring
   critical fire weather conditions to the area for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

"Flat" low amplitude flow covers much of the CONUS this afternoon
and that includes the Desert SW. This has yielded us seasonably
warm albeit above normal temperatures, sunny skies, and afternoon
breezes. This pattern will remain for Friday though areas across
Sierra County may see some local enhancement to southerly breezes.
The dry line will try and make a push into the forecast area
tonight but any westward progression will be shoved back east by
afternoon.

On Saturday flow will begin to increase throughout the column
ahead of a sharpening upper-level trough/low. The low will be over
CA by Saturday evening, so impacts will be minimal. Elevated fire
danger and localized areas of dust will be the primary concern,
but that changes on Sunday. The low will move into the Great
Basin, swinging the main jet overhead Southern NM. Meanwhile a
surface low will deep over eastern CO. This will make for a windy
day on Sunday. Strongest winds will be mainly west of the Rio
Grande in alignment with the jet. Also, high pressure across the
Plains will force the surface trough to be just east of the CWA
into Hudspeth County further dampening winds for Hudspeth. Wind
advisories will probably be needed for much of New Mexico and
maybe the east slopes of the Franklins, but the main impact will
be the fire danger and blowing dust. A Fire Weather Watch is in
effect. Southwest trajectories will favor dust from Mexico to move
into southern NM and Far West Texas. Blowing dust advisories will
probably be needed closer to the event.

The UL low departs well to our northeast with a trough lingering
across the Colorado River Valley. Normally, this would keep winds
on the breezy to windy side, but surface high pressure over the
Plains will disrupt lee cyclogenesis. Additionally the main jet
will be across Mexico. Thus, temperatures will be close to normal
with just some modest afternoon winds to start the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Typical aftn
breeziness aft 25/18Z with sly wind gusts generally around 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY...

Elevated fire weather concerns are in place for Friday and
Saturday. Min RH values will drop well into the single-digits
while afternoon winds top out around 15 to 20 MPH each afternoon.
Some funneling on Friday may lead to locally critical concerns
across Sierra County, but no red flag warning is in effect.
Saturday will see breezy winds continue with very low min RH
values.

Winds increase further for Sunday, especially for mountains and
locations west of the Rio Grande Valley. Latest forecast has
20-foot winds topping out between 25 and 30 MPH with some mountain
locations reaching 35 MPH. Gusts will be as high as 55 MPH. These
winds will combine with very low min RH values as low as 5
percent. Even the highest elevations of the Sacramento Mountains
will drop below 15 percent. A fire weather watch is in effect.
Only Hudspeth County was excluded from the watch as winds do not
appear as strong there, topping out 15 to 20 MPH, but later
updates may require the watch to be expanded or a warning issued.

After Sunday we remain in an extremely dry pattern but winds will
be lighter. Thus, no critical fire conditions are expected beyond
Sunday at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  58  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            52  86  53  87 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces               49  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               51  87  52  87 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               41  66  41  65 /   0   0  20  20
Truth or Consequences    50  84  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              47  77  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   48  87  47  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                46  84  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       59  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                48  89  53  90 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock             53  92  54  94 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               55  82  55  83 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                   53  89  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             51  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            48  85  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    46  87  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 53  87  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                50  85  53  86 /   0   0  10  10
Mayhill                  45  77  44  78 /   0   0  20  30
Mescalero                44  77  44  75 /   0   0  20  20
Timberon                 42  74  42  73 /   0   0  20  10
Winston                  39  77  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  82  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                45  84  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  78  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   44  80  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    42  83  42  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               44  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  79  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   46  84  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  48  84  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  84  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  77  48  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...99